(WASHINGTON, June 17, 2013) Today’s national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $3.61 per gallon. This is two cents less expensive than one week ago and three cents less than one month ago, but it is ten cents more than the same date last year.

The focus to begin last week was on the national average moving higher as a result of of sharp increases in retail prices for a handful of Great Lakes states. The near record high prices in these states were because of continued low supplies and transportation challenges for wholesale gasoline in the Chicago market, particularly due to maintenance at the ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet, Ill. and the BP refinery in Whiting, Ind. As noted in last Monday’s AAA Fuel Gauge Report, confirmation that the Joliet refinery was back online and talk throughout the week that the Whiting refinery would soon return to normal production levels meant imminent price relief for these states was likely.

This prediction held true as these same states have seen prices more than reverse course over the last week. Motorists in 26 states are paying more than one week ago, but none of these increases has been more than six cents. This compares to ten states where prices have fallen at least six cents during the same period, led by declines of fifteen cents or more in four Great Lakes states: Wisc. (-15 cents), Ohio (-18 cents), Ind. (-23 cents) and Mich. (-27 cents).

National gasoline markets in recent months have been driven by regional supply and production issues rather than by the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which has traded in a narrow $5 range. At the same time regional gasoline production and distribution concerns have eased and retail prices have inched lower, market-watchers have turned a wary eye to escalating geopolitical tensions in Syria. While Syria is not a major oil producing nation, there is the risk that fighting might spread to other countries in the region, and this has kept some upward pressure on crude oil prices. At the close of formal trading on the NYMEX last Friday, these tensions drove WTI to settle at $97.85 per barrel which was the highest mark since January. At the close of today’s formal trading, WTI settled down 8 cents at $97.77 per barrel.

(WASHINGTON, June 10, 2013) Today’s national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $3.63 per gallon. This is a penny more expensive than one week ago, six cents more than one month ago and nine cents more than the same date last year. The national average was in the midst of a 61-cent tumble at this time last year — from a peak of $3.94 on April 5 and 6, to a summer-low of $3.33 on July 2 — so the year-over-year gap is likely to continue to widen in the coming days.

The national average has increased just one-cent in the past week; however this obscures divergent gas price storylines at the state level. Drivers in 25 states have seen prices fall during this period, led by the drops of more than 8 cents per gallon in Okla. (-8 cents), N.D. (-8 cents), Kan. (-9 cents), Neb. (-10 cents) and Minn. (-12 cents). Plunging prices in these five Midwestern and Central states represent a pull-back from recent dramatic highs, including all-time daily records in N.D and Minn. near the end of May.

At the same time, drivers in 25 states and Washington D.C. have seen prices increase over the past week. This group is led by sharply higher prices in several Great Lakes states, including jumps of at least 8 cents per gallon in Ohio (+9 cents), Wisc. (+11 cents), Mich. (+12 cents), Ill. (+16 cents) and Ind. (+19 cents). The near record high prices being paid by drivers in these states are the product of continued low supplies and transportation challenges for wholesale gasoline in the Chicago market, particularly because of maintenance at the ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet, Ill. and the BP refinery in Whiting, Ind. Confirmation today that the Joliet refinery was back online after more than two months will increase supply to the market and likely mean lower prices in the days ahead, however the Whiting refinery continues to operate at less than full capacity.

While prices may tick higher in the next few days, AAA continues to expect lower prices — both nationally and in the Great Lakes — as June continues. Prices should drop below a national average of $3.50 per gallon by the end of the month if refineries, particularly those in the Great Lakes, can transition smoothly from ongoing maintenance to full production.

As noted in last week’s Fuel Gauge Report, national gasoline markets have been driven by regional supply and production issues and not by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have traded within a narrow $5 range. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled down 26 cents at $95.77 per barrel.

(WASHINGTON, June 3, 2013) Yesterday, for the first time in three months, American motorists paid more at the pump than they did one year ago.

Today’s national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $3.62 per gallon. This price is fractions of a penny less expensive than one week ago, but it is ten cents more expensive than one month ago and three cents more than the same date last year.

After ten consecutive overnight declines, the national average has now increased for two straight days.

Motorists in a handful of states (W.Va., S.C., Miss., Ala., N.C. and D.C.) have seen prices drop in the last 30 days, however sharply higher prices in the Midwest, Rockies and Pacific Northwest have propelled the national average higher at a time when, in recent years, drivers have enjoyed falling prices. Motorists in 16 states have seen prices rise by more than twenty cents per gallon in the past month and those in seven Midwestern states (N.D., S.D., Iowa, Okla., Neb., Kan., and Mich.) are paying at least thirty cents more. These higher regional prices have been due to continued refinery maintenance and other production issues that led to tight supplies.

The dramatic price increases in these Midwestern states have frustrated motorists, however many of these same drivers have also experienced sizable weekly declines as refinery maintenance draws to a close and supply concerns are alleviated. The primary exception has been three Great Lakes states: Ohio, Ind., and Mich. where gas prices have jumped more than a dime in the last seven days. These isolated higher retail prices have been due to heavy demand for wholesale gasoline in the Chicago market, as the summer driving season gets underway, at the same time that lingering refinery outages from planned and unplanned turnarounds mean lean supplies for this group of states.

While prices may tick higher in the next few days, AAA continues to expect lower prices — both nationally and in the Midwest — as June continues. Prices should drop below a national average of $3.50 per gallon by the end of the month if refineries can transition smoothly from ongoing maintenance to full production.

While national gasoline markets have been driven by regional supply and production issues, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have traded within a narrow $5 range for more than a month. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled up $1.48 at $93.45 per barrel.

(WASHINGTON, May 31, 2013)

Gas Prices Increased in May for the First Time Since Winter

• The national average price of gas increased 10.4 cents per gallon (2.96 percent) in May, which was the first monthly increase since February. Rising gas prices in many parts of the country led to significant motorist frustration heading into the busy summer driving season.
• The national average increased 17 days in a row to $3.66 per gallon from May 6 until May 22, which was the largest consecutive streak of price increases since February. The national average has since dropped nine days in a row to $3.61 per gallon. Gas prices nationally increased 19 out of 31 days during the month. By contrast, prices increased only one day during May in 2012 and increased only seven days during the month in 2011.
• “Consumers in the Midwest and other parts of the country faced tremendous frustrations due to rapidly rising gas prices in May,” said Avery Ash, AAA spokesman. “Continued refinery maintenance and other production issues led to tight supplies and a spooked market for much of the month. After seeing prices decline this spring, many motorists were unhappy to pay higher prices heading into the busy travel season.”
• Gas prices increased in many parts of the country due to tight supplies caused by refinery maintenance and unexpected production issues, particularly in the Midwest, Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Relatively tight supplies and concerns about production typically lead to rising gas prices.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices also increased more than 10 percent from slightly below $87 per barrel in mid-April to more than $96 per barrel in mid-May. Rising oil prices increase gasoline costs resulting in higher pump prices for consumers. The price of WTI has since dropped to the most recent settlement price of $93.61 per barrel.
• Despite the rising prices, motorists on average paid less at the pump in May than recent years. The national average for the month was $3.59 per gallon, compared to $3.72 per gallon in 2012 and $3.91 in 2011.
• Half of U.S. adults consider gas prices to be “too high” when it reaches $3.44 per gallon, according to a new consumer index developed by AAA. Forty-six percent of adults believe gas is too high when it reaches $3.00 per gallon; 61 percent believe it is too high when it reaches $3.50 per gallon; and 90 percent believe gas is too high when it reaches $4.00 per gallon. Sixty-two percent of Americans are offsetting high gas prices by changing their driving habits or lifestyle.

Gas Prices Should Drop in June as Refinery Maintenance Winds Down

• “Gasoline supply problems should ease over the next month as some refinery maintenance comes to an end,” continued Ash. “Prices should drop below a national average of $3.50 per gallon by the end of June if refineries can transition smoothly from ongoing maintenance to full production. Some concerns remain though because refineries often have complications when restarting, which could lead to unpredictable problems in the weeks ahead.”
• The highest national average so far this year was $3.79 per gallon on Feb. 27. It is becoming increasingly possible that gas prices peaked for the year in February, but there is still potential for prices to spike later in the year. AAA has no record of gas prices ever previously peaking in February.
• Gas prices often rise in late summer due to the hurricane season and a decline in supplies immediately prior to the switchover to winter-blend gasoline, so it is possible that motorists could pay higher prices later this year.

Gas Prices in the Great Plains Reached All-Time Record Highs in May

• Motorists in the Great Plains paid among the highest gas prices the region had ever seen in May with both Minnesota and North Dakota breaking all-time record highs for each state. The average price of gas reached $4.27 per gallon on May 20 in Minnesota, while the average reached $4.24 per gallon in North Dakota on May 22.
• In the days leading up to Memorial Day, consumers in 11 states were paying at least 30 cents per gallon more than the previous month. Motorists in nine states paid an average of more than $4 per gallon including Alaska, California, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska and Washington. At the peak, the price of gas increased more than 80 cents per gallon in Minnesota and 60 cents per gallon in North Dakota from the previous month. Gas prices across the region have begun to ease slowly from these record highs.
• Gas prices spiked across the Midwest due to significant refinery and supply issues. Planned maintenance and upgrades at several refineries, including BP Whiting and ExxonMobil Joliet, in addition to unexpected problems at several other regional refineries, limited production and reduced gasoline supplies. The Pacific Northwest and Rockies experienced similar refinery issues, but to a lesser extent than in the Great Plains.
• The price of gasoline continues to vary dramatically with the cheapest gasoline primarily found in the Southeast. The five states with the highest averages today include: Hawaii ($4.36), Alaska ($4.08), N.D. ($4.06), Calif. ($4.01) and Ill. ($3.97). The five states with the lowest averages today include: S.C. ($3.22), Ala. ($3.25), Miss. ($3.26), Tenn. ($3.27) and La. ($3.32).

Learn how to save money on gas with a few simple tips from AAA.

AAA updates fuel price averages daily at www.FuelGaugeReport.AAA.com. Every day up to 120,000 stations are surveyed based on credit card swipes and direct feeds in cooperation with the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) and Wright Express for unmatched statistical reliability. All average retail prices in this report are for a gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline. For more information, contact Michael Green at 202-942-2082, mgreen@national.aaa.com. 

(ORLANDO, May 28, 2013) Yesterday’s national average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $3.63 and marked the second consecutive year that the average American motorist has paid less per gallon at the pump when filling up for their Memorial Day holiday travel. The national average on the previous two Memorial Days was $3.64 per gallon (May 28, 2012) and $3.79 (May 30, 2011). AAA forecast that 31.2 million American drivers took to the road this holiday weekend to travel 50 miles or more from home, up slightly from 31.1 million last year.

Today’s national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is $3.63 per gallon. This price is thirteen cents more expensive than one month ago but it is three cents less expensive than one week ago. The average American motorist has enjoyed a lower year-over-year pump price for 87 consecutive days, but those savings have narrowed substantially to less than two cents per gallon, down significantly from the peak year-to-date discount of 39 cents on April 18.

Following 17 straight days of increases, the national average price at the pump has now dropped for six consecutive days. The national price is only three cents per gallon below the recent peak of $3.66 on May 22 – the highest price since March 25 – but it is still more than a dime less than the peak price to date of $3.79 per gallon on February 27.

The recent decline in the national average has been keyed by dramatic price drops in the Midwest where many motorists have seen pump prices retreat from historic highs. Following a breakneck run up due to low gasoline supplies and significant refinery maintenance – both planned and unplanned – a handful states in that region have registered week-over-week declines of more than ten cents per gallon. While drivers in Minnesota have seen the most rapid decline as prices have fallen by nearly a quarter during the same period, the average in the state is still historically high at more than $4 per gallon.

While national gasoline markets have been driven by regional supply and production issues, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices remained relatively flat in recent weeks. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled up 86 cents at $95.01 per barrel.

ORLANDO, Fl (May 20, 2013) Today’s national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.65. This price is seven cents more expensive than one week ago and 14 cents more than one month ago. The seven-cent weekly increase is the largest such spike since February and today’s national average price at the pump is the highest since March.

While the average American motorist has enjoyed a less expensive year-over-year pump price for 79 consecutive days, the savings have narrowed to just four cents per gallon, down substantially from the peak year-to-date discount of 39 cents on April 18. With the national average rising steadily, compared to a year ago when prices were tumbling, it is likely that the average will once again rise above year-ago levels in the coming days and may be more expensive than last year for the approaching Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Higher crude oil prices may be the reason that drivers in every state are paying more for gasoline than two weeks ago, but tight regional supplies and refinery maintenance – both planned and unplanned – are the reason for the dramatically higher pump prices in the Midwest and West Coast. In particular, the average price paid by motorists in Minnesota (+68 cents) and North Dakota (+63 cents) has spiked more than sixty cents during this period, propelling both state averages to new all-time highs. The previous record in both states was in July 2008; at the same time the national average soared to what is still a record of $4.11 per gallon.

While not yet at record highs, three states (Iowa, Neb. and Okla.) have had prices increase by more than 50 cents in two weeks and are within a dime of their respective all-time highest pump prices. Rising Midwest prices may have slowed over the weekend from their recent breakneck pace, but motorists are not out of the woods yet as regional supplies remain low and heavy storms were forecast yesterday and today. No refinery disruptions have been reported as a result of the storms, but the potential remains for additional refinery issues in the already supply-strapped region.

With the upcoming Memorial Day holiday marking the unofficial start to summer, the national average continues to cling to a year-over-year discount; however motorists in all twelve Midwestern states and Oklahoma are paying at least a dime per gallon more than on this date in 2012. The national average on the previous two Memorial Days were $3.64 (May 28, 2012) and $3.79 (May 30, 2011).

With much of the focus on volatile regional gasoline markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have continued to drift higher in recent weeks. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled up 69 cents at $96.71 per barrel. This is the highest settlement price for WTI in more than 6 weeks.

(WASHINGTON, May 13, 2013) Today’s national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.58. This price is six cents more expensive than one week ago and four cents more than one month ago. This is the largest weekly increase since February and the national average has now registered a month-over-month premium on three straight days.

The national average has been less than the same date in 2012 for 72 straight days; however the year-over-year discount has narrowed to 15 cents per gallon after widening to as much as 39 cents per gallon on April 18. Gas prices at this time last year were falling consistently and would eventually decline 82 out of 87 days for a total of 61 cents from April 6 to July 2. By comparison, the national average this year has increased for eight straight days to the highest price in more than a month. With this in mind, it is likely that the year-over-year discount will continue to fade in the coming days.

The national average is currently 21 cents below the peak 2013 price to date of $3.79 on February 27. In 2011 the national average for regular unleaded gasoline peaked at $3.98 on May 5. In 2012 the price peaked at $3.94 on April 5 and 6.

The recent trend of higher prices at the pump has been nearly universal with only motorists in West Virginia and Ohio paying less today at the pump than a week ago. Six states (Ore., Minn., Wash., Okla., Neb. and Iowa) have seen prices surge by more than twenty cents and 13 states have seen prices jump by at least a dime. While higher crude oil prices have put upward pressure on retail gasoline prices across the country, it has been tight supplies and refinery maintenance – both planned and unplanned – in Midcontinent and West Coast that has squeezed prices substantially higher for drivers in those regions.

After drifting higher for several weeks, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were pressured lower today by a stronger dollar and weaker equities. Oil futures are traded in U.S. dollars and as the dollar strengthens against foreign currencies, as was the case today, these futures become relatively more expensive to purchase and are a less attractive investment. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled down 87 cents at $95.17 per barrel.

(WASHINGTON, May 6, 2013) Today’s national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.52. This price is two cents more expensive than one week ago, but it remains 9 cents less than one month ago and 26 cents less than one year ago. After registering a week-over-week decline every day since March 1 (61 consecutive days), the national average has posted a week-over-week increase for six straight days. The national average is currently 27 cents below the peak 2013 price to date of $3.79 on February 27. In 2011 the national average for regular unleaded gasoline peaked at $3.98 on May 5. In 2012 the price peaked at $3.94 on April 5 and 6.

Since national gas prices peaked at the end of February, motorists nationwide have felt welcome relief at the pump in the form of falling prices. In recent weeks, the exception to this downward trend was limited to six states in the Great Lakes region where the transition to summer-blend gasoline and heavy rains triggered supply concerns and provided a catalyst for higher retail prices. While these remain the only states with a higher average pump price today than a month ago (Ill. +15 cents, Ind. +12 cents, Ohio +10 cents, Wisc. +8 cents, Mich. +7 cents and Minn. +2 cents), motorists in the majority of states are paying more today than one week ago.

Higher prices in the Great Lakes region were initially the product of domestic production concerns; however the recent broader increase in retail gas prices has been supported by higher global crude oil prices. On April 17 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at $86.68 at the close of formal trading on the NYMEX. At the close today the traditional U.S. benchmark settled at $96.16 — up 55 cents on the day and almost $10 in less than three weeks.

These higher oil prices have been broadly supported by signs of economic recovery, however news over the weekend of an Israeli airstrike in Syria raised fresh concerns of a possible disruption to oil supplies in the Middle East and added to the upward pressure on prices. In the spring of both 2011 and 2012 oil prices rose substantially on violence and escalating geopolitical tensions with Libya and Iran respectively, before tumbling as these concerns were alleviated heading into the summer.

(WASHINGTON, April 29, 2013)

Motorists Pay Lowest Springtime Gas Prices in Three Years

• Gas prices nationally averaged $3.55 per gallon in April, which was the least expensive average for the month since 2010. Gas prices dropped about 13 cents per gallon in April (3.5 percent), which was the largest percentage decline for the month in ten years. In comparison, gas prices in 2012 averaged $3.89 for the month, while the average price in April 2011 was $3.79 per gallon.
• “Gas prices in much of the country have declined this spring because of lower oil costs, ample refinery production and continued weak demand,” said Avery Ash, AAA spokesman. “Gas prices have fallen faster and earlier than ever before for this time of year, and it is saving motorists millions of dollars per day in lower fuel costs.”
• The national average price of gas for April 30, 2013 is $3.51 per gallon, which is the fourth highest on record for this day. The national average a year ago was $3.82 per gallon, while the average on this day in 2011 was $3.93 per gallon and in 2008 it was $3.62 per gallon.
• AAA has no record of gas prices previously peaking in February, yet the highest average of the year so far is $3.79 per gallon on Feb. 27. Since that time, the average price nationally has dropped 50 out of 62 days for a total of 28 cents per gallon. The peak price in 2012 was $3.94 per gallon on April 5 and 6, while the peak in 2011 was $3.98 on May 5.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices dropped below $87 per barrel in mid-April, which was the lowest closing price since December. The price of WTI began the month at more than $97 per barrel and closed yesterday at $94.50 per barrel. Oil and commodity prices dropped earlier in the month as a result of expectations of yet another “spring swoon” for the economy.
• Half of U.S. adults consider gas prices to be “too high” when it reaches $3.44 per gallon, according to a new consumer index developed by AAA. Forty-six percent of adults believe gas is too high when it reaches $3.00 per gallon; 61 percent believe it is too high when it reaches $3.50 per gallon; and 90 percent believe gas is too high when it reaches $4.00 per gallon. Sixty-two percent of Americans are offsetting high gas prices by changing their driving habits or lifestyle.

Gas Prices Should Drop to $3.20-$3.40 During Summer Driving Season

• Gas prices should drop to $3.20 to $3.40 per gallon by mid-summer if current trends continue in regards to oil prices, motorist demand and refinery production. Gas prices in recent years have declined in early summer after reaching a springtime peak as refineries ramp up gasoline production in anticipation of the summer driving season.
• “Families taking trips this summer can expect to pay lower gas prices than recent years as long as there are not any refinery problems or significant international news events,” continued Ash. “Lower prices should bring at least some relief to everyone going on vacation, but it is clear that millions of motorists will continue to believe that prices are too high for this time of year.”
• Over the next few weeks average prices nationally could remain flat or even rise slightly as some maintenance and production issues continue. Prices in the Great Lakes region, in particular, could rise as a result of both scheduled and unscheduled refinery maintenance. Gas stations in many parts of the country also must begin selling more expensive summer-blend gasoline by June 1 in order to meet federal air quality standards.

Cheapest Gas Prices Predominately in the Southeastern United States

• The cheapest gas prices are predominately in the Southeast where extensive refinery production and lower-than-average taxes have helped keep prices low in comparison to the rest of the country. Gas prices in the Great Lakes region have increased in recent weeks because of planned refinery maintenance and unscheduled outages following recent heavy storms.
• Motorists in every state in the continental U.S. are paying less than $4 per gallon for gasoline. The only state paying above that threshold is Hawaii, which generally is the most expensive gasoline market in the country.
• The five states with the highest averages today include: Hawaii ($4.34), Alaska ($3.97), Ill. ($3.91), Calif. ($3.90) and Mich. ($3.79). The five states with the cheapest gas price averages today include: S.C. ($3.23), Tenn. ($3.26), Ala. ($3.27), Ark. ($3.27) and Miss. ($3.28).

Learn how to save money on gas with a few simple tips from AAA. 

(WASHINGTON, April 29, 2013) Today’s national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.50. This price is two cents less expensive than one week ago, 14 cents less than one month ago and 32 cents less than one year ago. The last time that the national average was below $3.50 was February 2. While the national average price at the pump increased by fractions of a penny overnight, it had previously fallen for four consecutive days and 50 of the previous 61. The national average is currently 29 cents below the peak 2013 price to date of $3.79 on February 27. In 2011 the national average for regular unleaded gasoline peaked at $3.98 on May 5. In 2012 the price peaked at $3.94 on April 5 and 6.

Motorists in the vast majority of states have seen the price of gasoline continue to fall during the last week; however drivers in nine states (see graphic below), including parts of the Midwest, actually saw prices increase during this period. Analysts have noted that the region would be susceptible to price increases as regional refineries had yet to undergo seasonal maintenance and make the transition to summer-blend gasoline production, and recent storms and resulting power outages provided a catalyst for higher retail prices in the region. Gas stations in much of the country must make the retail switch to selling summer-blend gasoline by June 1, however refineries make the shift to summer blend in March and April in order to meet a May 1 production deadline. During this switch regional production is reduced and supplied markets are more sensitive to unexpected disruptions, as was the case during the recent storms in the Midwest.

On Saturday a fire and explosion at the Marathon refinery in Detroit raised new concerns of a possible disruption to regional supply, however a statement issued today indicated that the incident is not expected to have an impact on production. While it does not appear that this most recent event will contribute to higher prices for motorists, it highlights the likelihood that gas prices in the region will remain sensitive to any unexpected disruptions to production as we near the deadline for the switch to summer blend gasoline.

While  retail gas prices have continued to fall nationally, crude oil prices have reversed their recent slide and jumped higher in the last week. One week after settling below $90 per barrel for the first time in 2013, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil began last week at $88.76 per barrel but rose sharply to end the week at $93. This increase continued today as a weaker dollar kept upward pressure on oil prices. Oil futures are traded in U.S. dollars and as the dollar weakens against foreign currencies, as was the case today, these futures become relatively less expensive to purchase and are a more attractive investment. At the close of today’s formal trading on the NYMEX, WTI settled up $1.50 cents at $94.50 per barrel.